February 1, 2019 by BizWhiz Admin in Economy Snapshot 0 comments 732

Dear Colleagues

I am pleased to attach the Economy / Market Snapshot covering all the major events in January, 2019

Indian market was almost the same as last month but with volatility. On the sectoral indices, IT moved up by 7% while Auto lost about 11%. FII’s sold about Rs.3,200 crores in in the equity market while Domestic Institutional Investors invested 7,700 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors invested a whopping Rs.55,600 crores in the debt market showing that liquidity is available but shied away from the equity market.

On the Global markets front, DOW went up by 7% and Nasdaq up by 10%; this is despite the longest shutdown of the government in US. While Donald Trump has opened the Government, it is only for a 3 week period and we have to see how events would unfold in February. However, based on the recent Tweets of the US President, if there is a settlement on the trade front between US and China, then the markets would welcome such a move. Global markets went up last month with Hong Kong registering an increase of 8%. Despite the stalemate on the Brexit in UK, FTSE moved up by 3.50% last month. Indian Rupee was at Rs.71.08 to 1 US $. Gold gained about 5% and Silver gained about 4% last month. Crude regained its upward journey and moved up by 15% to trade at $62 a barrel.

On the Indian front, the major news from the business is the report on the former ICICI Bank CEO, Ms Chanda Kochar and the ICICI Bank Board terminating her employment for cause. CBI also registered a case and expressed to seek information from the who’s and who of the Banking Industry which made Mr Arun Jaitley to tweet. Cobra Post released some news on DHFL alleging diversion and DHFL promptly denied the charges; There were issues in the matter of Zee group. Jet Airways is struggling to survive. Market is nervous with such negative news and we are not sure where these issues will end. With the election in the next few months and the opposition rallying together, markets will be volatile for some more months.

While we see some volatility, India story is intact and we should march past ahead in 2019!

Happy reading!…….

Regards
V Murali

General News

  • India celebrates 70th Republic Day in presence of South African President Ramaphosa.
  • Winter session: 16 bills were introduced and three were passed during the session by both the Houses.
  • Bill for 10% reservation to economically weak upper castes cleared by President.
  • Lok Sabha passes Citizenship Bill, seeks to give citizenship to non-Muslims from 3 countries.
  • Triple talaq: Centre promulgates ordinance again after failing to get Rajya Sabha’s approval.
  • Session witnessed disruptions and adjournments over issues including Rafale deal, CBI , RBI.
  • PM Modi-led panel removes Alok Verma as CBI Chief, 48 hrs after reinstatement by SC; Nageswara Rao
    takes charge.
  • Three SC judges rescue themselves from hearing interim CBI chief’s case.
  • PM Modi lays foundation stone for AIIMS at Madurai in Tamil Nadu; inaugurates ₹16,504 crore worth BPCL
    refinery expansion complex in Kochi, Kerala.
  • PM Modi inaugurates key development projects in Manipur and irrigation projects in Jharkhand.
  • Nitin Gadkari inaugurate 1st inter-state bridge, Keediyan-Gandiyal bridge in J&K.
  • PM Modi and Norwegian PM Erna Solberg hold talks, vow to give direction to ties.
  • Sushma Swaraj holds talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on key bilateral, regional issues.
  • Rahul Gandhi holds talks with Vice President and PM of the UAE in his maiden visit Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
  • Rahul Gandhi recently announced basic income for the country’s poor if Congress voted to power.
  • Around 23 opposition parties attend “United India Rally” organised by TMC chief Mamata Banerjee.
  • Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal launches election campaign; AAP to contest all 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab.
  • Priyanka Gandhi Vadra joins active politics, appointed as Congress general secretary for UP East.
  • SP, BSP announce tie-up for Lok Sabha polls, to contest 38 seats each in UP.
  • Central trade unions and farmers were on a 2-day, nationwide strike to protest the govt’s labour policies.
  • Government sanctions ₹7,214 crores to 6 states, 1 UT as relief for calamity damage.
  • Kerala: Pro-Hindutva outfits call for state-wide bandh after 2 women enter Sabarimala Temple.
  • 2 independent MLAs withdraw support, Congress says Karnataka govt stable.
  • Nagaland Cabinet rejects citizenship bill, Manipur to oppose Bill if clause to protect natives not included.
  • Meghalaya Mine: Operation to retrieve bodies of 15 miners continue.
  • Nirmala Sitharaman inaugurates Tamil Nadu Defence Industrial Corridor in the Tiruchirappalli.
  • World’s largest religious and cultural human congregation Kumbh Mela begins in UP.
  • George Fernandes, Former Defence Minister, dies at 88 after long illness.
  • Shivakumara Swamiji of Siddaganga mutt passes away at 111; 3-day mourning declared in Karnataka.
  • HRD starts 70-point grading index to assess state school education.
  • Donald Trump ends shutdown, signs bill to reopen government.
  • NASA’s newest planet-hunting spacecraft confirms a third world outside our Solar System.
  • ISRO puts world’s lightest satellite The Kalamsat-V2 into orbit, made by Indian students.
  • PM May wins in Brexit Plan B vote after House rejects Plan A; EU rejects fresh Brexit negotiations.
  • May wins no confidence vote after Brexit deal defeat.
  • North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un visits China for summit with Xi Jinping.
  • Second Trump –Kim meeting to happen in the late February.
  • Senator Kamala Harris launches her 2020 US presidential bid; raises over $1 million within first 24 hours.
  • Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido claims Presidency; President Maduro cuts relations with US.
  • Macedonia approves constitutional changes to rename itself North Macedonia.
  • Iron Waste Dam Collapses in Brazil; death toll nears 100.
  • UNESCO names Rio de Janeiro as the ‘World Capital of Architecture’ for 2020.
  • On first day of 2019 around 395,000 babies born worldwide, most in India: UNICEF.
  • Indonesia Masters 2019: Saina Nehwal wins title as Carolina Marin forced to retire.
  • Australian Open 2019: Novak Djokovic wins his 7th men’s singles title, Naomi Osaka wins women’s title.
  • Tamil Nadu’s D Gukesh becomes India’s youngest and the world’s second youngest Grandmaster.
  • Virat Kohli named ICC’s captain of Test, ODI team and Cricketer of the Year 2018, creates history.
  • Asian Cup football: Qatar to clash with Japan in the final. India crashed out in quarters.
  • IND vs AUS: India wins first-ever 4 match Test series in Australia, clinches ODI series by 2-1.
  • India vs New Zealand: India takes an unassailable 3-1 lead in the five match series.
  • India vs New Zealand Women: India won the series by 2-0, with 1 more match to play.

 

Business News

  • 32nd GST Meet: Council decides to increase GST registration threshold limit to ₹40 lakh from ₹20 lakh.
  • GST ministerial panel favours Kerala levying 1% calamity cess for 2 years.
  • E-way bill to be integrated with NHAI’s FASTag to track GST evasion from April.
  • Piyush Goyal appointed interim Finance Minister; to present interim budget on February 1.
  • Cabinet approves setting up of a centralised GST Appellate Authority.
  • Bimal Jalan panel holds 1st meeting to examine reserve size of RBI; report likely in April.
  • NPA recognition likely to get prolonged till FY20, may spike by ₹5.24 trillion: RBI.
  • Centre infused ₹51,533 crores in PSU banks this FY till December 31.
  • Bank of Baroda Share swap : Dena & Vijaya Bank shareholders with 1000 shares to get 110 & 402 shares.
  • LIC completes the acquisition of 51% controlling stake in IDBI Bank.
  • Bank Of India board approves issuing up to 10 crores new equity shares to employees at ₹80/share.
  • Srikrishna panel indicts Ms Kochhar; ICICI Bank to stop unpaid retirement benefits, recover bonuses.
  • HDFC MF surpasses ICICI Prudential MF to become largest AMC in India.
  • Foreign reinsurers mobilised over ₹6,200 crore premium in FY18: IRDAI.
  • Federal Reserve puts rate rises on hold as global economy slows.
  • Govt to form inter-ministerial panel to roll out in-flight mobile services by March.
  • Telecom revenue mop-up slips 22% in FY18 as earnings take a hit.
  • BMW to locally assemble the X7 and X4 in India.
  • Kia Motors commences trial production of new compact SUV at its Anantapur Plant in Andhra Pradesh.
  • Volkswagen’s India 2.0 project kicks off with a new tech centre in Pune.
  • Shell completes acquisition of Total’s 26% stake in Hazira LNG in Gujarat.
  • Chevron, Total and Reliance join oil blockchain platform Vakt.
  • Adani Group, BASF sign MoU for ₹16,000 crore petrochemical project.
  • UDAN: Guwahati to become first city with international air connectivity to Bangkok, Dhaka.
  • Etihad offers to invest in Jet Airways at ₹150/share; Ready to infuse up to ₹700 crore: Naresh Goyal.
  • Apple cuts March quarter production plan for new iPhones by 10%.
  • Indian pharma industry records 9.4% growth in 2018, dispels GST gloom.
  • Madras HC lifts ban on online sale of drugs, medicines; until a framework is created to regulate the sale.
  • DHFL denies the charges of ₹31,000 crores of fund diversion made by media outlet Cobrapost.
  • FDI in e-commerce: Flipkart, Amazon seek extension of February 1 deadline from government.
  • RBI announces committee led by Nandan Nilekani on digital payments.
  • Over 500 small restaurateurs complain to CCI about unfair practices by food aggregators.
  • Oyo expands international footprint with foray into Philippines, onboards 10 properties.
  • Facebook brings stricter ads rules to India ahead of 2019 general election.
  • Google fined $57 million by France for first major violation of EU’s GDPR data privacy.
  • WhatsApp globally limits the number of times a user can forward a message to five.
  • Tamil Nadu moves Supreme Court against NGT order allowing Vedanta to reopen Thoothukudi plants.
  • Govt simplifies process for startups to seek tax exemption on angel fund investments.
  • World Economic Forum 2019: Unease over Brexit and global recession dominated the summit.
  • Vibrant Gujarat 2019: 28,360 MoUs signed; to generate 21 lakh jobs.
  • Tamil Nadu Global Investors Meet 2019: MoUs for over ₹3-lakh crores signed.
  • India cuts tax on crude, refined palm oil imports from ASEAN countries.
  • China exports up 9.9% in 2018, strongest growth in 7 years despite trade war.
  • Nepal’s central bank announces ban of Indian notes above ₹100.
  • Nissan’s ex- Chair Carlos Ghosn on two new charges of financial misconduct; Tokyo court denies bail.
  • World Bank pegs India’s GDP growth at 7.3 % in FY19.
  • Mutual funds add ₹ 1.24 lakh crores to asset base in 2018 on SIP flows, strong retail participation.
  • Unemployment rate at four-decade high of 6.1% in 2017-18: NSSO survey.
  • Tata becomes most valued Indian brand; enters world’s Top 100.
  • Reliance Retail leaps to 94th spot, climbs 95 places on Deloitte’s top global retailers’ list.
  • Bloomberg 2019 Innovative Index: India bags 54th spot among 95 countries.
  • Gita Gopinath joins IMF as its first female Chief Economist.
  • Axis Bank MD & CEO Shikha Sharma retires; Amitabh Chaudhry takes charge.
  • Yes Bank names Deutsche’s Ravneet Gill as MD & CEO effective March 1, 2019.
  • TCS appoints Daniel Hughes Callahan as Independent Director.
  • Carlos Ghosn resigns; Michelin’s Jean-Dominique Senard named chairman and Thierry Bollore as CEO.

 

Q3 Results

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank Q3 net profit up 23% YoY to ₹1,291 crores, GNPA eased to 2.07%, NNPA at 0.71%.
  • Axis Bank Q3 profit more than doubles to ₹1,681 crores, NII rose to ₹5,604 crores, GNPA lower at 5.75%.
  • ICICI Bank Q3 profit falls 3% YoY to ₹1,605 crores on higher provisions, NNPA eased to 2.58%.
  • YES Bank Q3 profit falls 7% to ₹1,002 crore, exposure to IL&FS group at ₹2530 crores.
  • Bank of India Q3 net loss widens to ₹4,738 crores; NPA provisions jump 2-fold to ₹9,179.48 crores.
  • Federal Bank Q3 net profit up 28% YoY to ₹333.63 crore; NII up 13% at ₹1,077.29 crore.
  • IndusInd Bank Q3 net profit rises 5.21% YoY to ₹985.03 crores, GNPA stood at 1.13%, NII grew 21%.
  • HCL Tech Q3 profit rises 2.8% to ₹2,611 crores, revenue rises 5.6% QoQ to ₹15,699 crores.
  • TVS Motor Q3 profit rises 15% YoY at ₹178.4 crores; revenue rises 26% YoY to ₹4,664 crores.
  • HDFC Q3 profit plunges 60.11% YoY to ₹2,113.80 crores, revenue rose 20.41% to ₹10,450.40 crores.
  • Infosys Q3 profit down 12% to ₹3609 crores, revenue up 4% to ₹20,609 crores; approves buyback.
  • TCS Q3 profit jumps 24.1% YoY to ₹8,105 crores, revenue rose 20.80% YoY to ₹37,338 crores.
  • Wipro reports 32% YoY jump in Q3 profit at ₹2,545 crore, announces bonus issue, dividend.
  • Zee Entertainment Q3 profit jumps 50% at ₹562.7 crores; subscription revenue up by 28%.
  • ITC Q3 profit grew by 4% to ₹3,209 crores, revenue up by 15% to ₹11,227.66 crores.
  • HUL Q3 net profit rises 9% YoY to ₹1,444 crore; revenue up 11% at ₹9,558 crore, volume growth at 10%.
  • Dabur Q3 profit grew by 10.2% YoY to ₹366 crores, revenue increased 11.8% to ₹2,199 crores.
  • L&T Q3 profit grew by 37% to ₹2,042 crores, revenue rises 24.2% to ₹35,708.9 crores.
  • Maruti Suzuki Q3 profit slumps 17% YoY to ₹1,489 crores, revenue grew 0.71% to ₹19,668.30 crores.
  • Bajaj Auto Q3 profit up 15.7% at ₹1101.9 crores, revenue stood at ₹7,409.4 crores.
  • Biocon Q3 net profit zooms over twofold to ₹217.2 crores, revenue grew 43.5% to ₹1,566.4 crores.
  • UltraTech Cement Q3 profit rises 7% to ₹449 crores, revenue jumped 16.11% to ₹8,812.7 crores.
  • RIL Q3 profit rises 7.7% to ₹10,251 crore, revenue up 9.1% to Rs 1.56 lakh crore; Jio net jumps 22%.
  • IOC Q3 net profit falls 78% to ₹716 crores; revenue rises to ₹1.6 lakh crores.

 

WORLD INDICES
Indices 31-Jan 31-Dec % 1M 01-Jan % since Jan
BSE 36257 36068 0.52% 36255 0.01%
NSE 10831 10863 -0.29% 10910 -0.73%
DOW 25000 23327 7.17% 23327 7.17%
NASDAQ 7282 6635 9.74% 6635 9.74%
FTSE 6969 6728 3.58% 6728 3.58%
Nikkei 20773 20015 3.79% 20015 3.79%
Hang Seng 27942 25846 8.11% 25846 8.11%
Straits Times 3190 3069 3.96% 3069 3.96%
Shanghai 2584 2494 3.63% 2494 3.63%
USD 71.08 69.77 1.87% 69.45 2.34%
Euro 81.35 80.01 1.67% 79.50 2.32%
GBP 93.12 89.06 4.55% 88.40 5.33%
Yen/100INR 0.65 0.64 2.56% 0.63 2.80%
Gold 33056 31410 5.24% 31422 5.20%
Silver 40439 38755 4.35% 38786 4.26%
Crude Brent $ 61.89 53.80 15.04% 53.50 15.68%
Crude Nymex $ 53.73 45.41 18.32% 45.31 18.58%
NIFTY SECTORAL INDICES
Sectors BANK NIFTY CNX IT CNX AUTO CNX FMCG CNX PHARMA
31-Jan 27295 15499 8218 29801 8825
31-Dec 27160 14440 9235 30517 8869
% 1M 0.50% 7.33% -11.01% -2.35% -0.49%
01-Jan 27392 14451 9182 30398 8882
% since Jan -0.35% 7.25% -10.50% -1.97% -0.64%

INDIAN TRADE(USD MILLION)
Exports 27930
Imports 41010
FDI 855
Government Bond 10Y 7.49%
GDP YoY 7.10%
Inflation Rate 2.19%
Forex Reserves $ M 396680
IIP % -4.80%
INSTITUTIONAL TRADING ACTIVITY
Particulars FII (Rs.crore) MF (Rs.crore)
Equity (3260) 7742
Debt (2504) 55660
Total 1 M (5764) 63403
Total Since Jan (5764) 63403
Equity (3260) 7742
Debt (2504) 55660

 

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