March 2, 2016 by BizWhiz Admin in Economy Snapshot 0 comments 2141

Dear Colleagues

I am pleased to attach the Economy / Market Snapshot covering all the major events in February, 2016.

Indian market saw one of the worst fall of over 7% down in just one month. FII’s sold over 15000 crores during this period. Growing concerns on the NPA’s of public sector banks, political issues like JNU took center stage. While world markets stabilized, Indian markets became nervous looking forward to the Parliament session with the fate of GST bill still hanging. In anticipation of the Budget, the markets failed to take off and due to the pressure of FII selling, the Rupee crossed Rs.68 mark against the US Dollar. All the sectors lost with the banking sector losing over 10%.

However with the Economic Survey on Friday and the Budget yesterday, the market has shot up in the trade today. The Budget is seen as “Modi” Budget targeting elections as the focus is on rural and agricultural sectors. Corporates and Salaried Tax payers could not be satisfied much. The deferment of “Place of Effective Management” (POEM) gave relief. The positive news on the GDP growth expectations cheered the market.

We have to watch the next one week whether the market sustains the current levels and the bears are out of sight for some more time. Overall, the Budget is seen as a good budget with the expectations of growth amidst slowdown fears globally.

Regards,

V Murali
CEO

General

  • Union Budget 2016-17: I-T slabs remain unchanged .
  • Direct tax proposals result in revenue loss of 1,060 crores, Indirect tax proposals result in gain of ₹ 20,670 crores.
  • The Economic Survey has revised India’s GDP growth range to 7 to 7.75 % for 2015-16 as against earlier government projected growth rate of 7 to 7.5%.
  • Rail Budget 2016-17 : No hike in rail fares; increase in quota for senior citizens , women.
  • 4 new trains including Antodaya, Tejas, Humsafar announced.
  • Railway Minister announces a capital plan of Rs. 1,21,000 crores for 2016-17; claims action initiated on 139 budget announcements made last year.
  • Indian Railways plans to garner Rs. 1,84,820 crores revenue in FY17.
  • Railways to generate employment of 14 crore man-days.
  • Make in India Week : Over a 1,000 companies and delegates from over 60 countries participated; garners Rs. 15.20 lakh crores investment proposals.
  • Karnataka eyes over Rs. 2.5 lakh crore from global investors meet; approves IT projects worth Rs.3000 crores.
  • SC clears the decks for Gail natural gas pipeline in Tamil Nadu.
  • 12 nations sign Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.
  • Bihar approves Rs. 16,960-crore metro rail project for Patna.
  • Abu Dhabi crown prince visits India ; keen to invest Rs 35,000 crore in Indian highways.
  • BJP , allies win 7 out of 12 Assembly seats in bypolls.
  • DA case: SC begins hearing on Jayalalithaa’s acquittal.
  • Election Laws (Amendment) Bill introduced in LS.
  • Congress rebel Kalikho Pul sworn in as Arunachal CM.
  • Government to spend Rs. 4,000 crores to develop first 20 smart cities.
  • Subramanian Swamy moves SC for construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya.
  • Narendra Modi gets Bihar’s support for Rs. 5 trillion power-reform agenda
  • Congress, DMK firm up alliance in Tamil Nadu.
  • Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) Students union protest against the execution of 2001 Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru and Kashmiri separatist leader Maqbool Bhat, and for Kashmir’s right to selfdetermination.
  • Arrest of the JNU Students’ Union President Kanhaiya Kumarand Umar Khalid on charges of sedition leads to a major political controversy.
  • The National Investigation Agency to hand over photos of Pathankot attackers to Pakistan.
  • 26/11 attacks: Headley names JuD chief Hafiz , ISI in Mumbai court. He says ISI provides financial, military support to Lashkar.
  • Narendra Modi, K.P. Oli discuss India-Nepal ties; India and Nepal sign 9 agreements.
  • India readies billion defence deals with Israel; fresh push for Israeli missile system.
  • Naveen Patnaik elected BJD president for 7th term.
  • Actor Sanjay Dutt walks out free of Yerawada jail.
  • India-born judge Srikanth Srinivasan gets elevated as US Supreme Court judge.
  • Cricket : India lose U-19 World Cup trophy to West Indies.
  • Cricket: India wins T20I series against Sri Lanka 2-1.
  • Indian men beat China in Badminton Asia Team championships.
  • Oscars 2016: DiCaprio wins best actor, Spotlight is best picture.

Business News

  • Budget 2016 : Companies with revenue less than ₹ 5 crores to be taxed at 29% plus surcharge.
  • Limited tax compliance window from Jun 1 – Sep 30 for declaring undisclosed income at 45% including surcharge and penalties.
  • Deduction for rent paid will be raised from ₹ 20,000 to ₹ 60,000 to benefit those living in rented houses.
  • 15 per cent surcharge on income above ₹ 1 crore.
  • ₹ 25,000 crores towards recapitalisation of public sector banks.
  • Excise 1 per cent imposed on articles of jewellery, excluding silver.
  • SUVs, Luxury cars to be more expensive. 4% high capacity tax for SUVs.
  • Government to take measures to support export sector: Jaitley .
  • Infrastructure and agriculture cess to be levied.
  • Withdrawal from NPS on maturity made tax-free upto 40%.
  • FM Jaitley announces 20% cess on domestic crude oil.
  • Jaitley announces tax dispute resolution scheme.
  • Budget 2016 removes dividend distribution tax on REITs.
  • Retrospective Tax: High level committee headed by Revenue Secretary to allay fears.
  • 10% tax on dividends in excess of Rs 10 lakh received by individuals, HUFs; in addition to DDT.
  • Government allocates ₹ 500 crores to support SC/ST, women entrepreneurs.
  • S&P holds India sovereign rating, says government debt burden a constraint.
  • Tax rebate for persons with income upto ₹ 5 Lakhs increased by ₹ 3,000.
  • Restaurant bills, travel to cost more from June.
  • Shops to be given option to remain open all seven days in a week across markets.
  • 100 per cent FDI in marketing of food products produced and marketed in India.
  • Government will pay EPF contribution of 8.33% for all new employees for first three years.
  • Government to set up ₹ 1,000 crore higher education financing agency.
  • First home buyers get ₹ 50,000 more deduction on interest.
  • Centre to provide ₹ 1 lakh per family health cover.
  • Railways to borrow Rs 20,000 crores from markets in Financial Year 17.
  • Rail Budget: Target operating ratio of 92% for FY17.
  • LIC to invest Rs.1.5 lakh crores in Railways on ‘favourable’ terms.
  • Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumps to 4-month high of 51.1 in January : Nikkei survey.
  • China January factory activity falls at fastest pace since 2012 – official PMI.
  • December core sector up 0.9% vs -1.3% in November.
  • Services PMI scales a 19-month high of 54.3 in January (as against 53.6 in December).
  • China foreign reserves fall almost billion to lowest since May 2012.
  • GDP growth rises 7.3% in December quarter, meets estimates; pegged at 7.6% for F.Y 2016.
  • India’s Per capita income seen slightly up at Rs 6,453/month in FY16.
  • China sets 2016 economic growth projection range at 6.5 to 7%.
  • Retail inflation hits 17-month high in January.
  • December industrial output contracts 1.3% Y-O-Y.
  • WPI inflation drops to (-) 0.9% in January as vegetables, pulses turn cheaper.
  • CPI inflation likely to remain in 5.6-5.8% range over next 2 months: Deutsche.
  • Private Equity, M&A deals rise 18% to 141 in January.
  • G20 to tell each other in advance about moves that could devalue currencies.
  • RBI keeps key rates unchanged.
  • Government hikes import tariff value on gold, silver.
  • Government to meet FY16 tax target of Rs 14.49 lakh crore.
  • Private Equity investment in realty up 72% at Rs 25,683 crore in 2015.
  • Capgemini to complete IGATE merger by June.
  • IL&FS Transportation sells 49% in Gurgaon’s rapid metro rail for million.
  • Wipro to buy US HealthPlan Services for million.
  • Ashok Leyland takes Nissan to court in JV assets.
  • Oracle to invest million in India.
  • Walmart eyes -milllion investment in India by 2020.
  • Four banks plan to sell Kingfisher Airlines’ assets to asset reconstruction companies(ARCs).
  • M&M to invest Rs 1,000 crores for developing petrol engines.
  • LIC buys over Rs1.5 trillion in govt. bonds in fiscal 2016.
  • Listed banks’ Non Performing Assets surge by Rs 1 trillion in December quarter.
  • EPFO offers 8.80% for 2015-16, unions protest.
  • I-T department sends tax reminder to Vodafone for ₹ 14,200 crore dues.
  • CBDT resolves cases worth ₹ 5,000 crore through Mutual Agreement Procedure.
  • Small savings rates cut by 0.25 per cent.
  • Finance Ministry clarifies on tax reporting norms under Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and Common Reporting Standards.
  • NSE, BSE says one person company can act as stock broker.
  • Service fee, surcharge on debit and credit card payments scrapped.
  • 19,400 start-ups in India, exit valuation still low.
  • Samsung wins appeal in patent dispute with Apple.
  • U.K. Sinha gets one-year extension as SEBI chairman.
  • Vijay Mallya steps down as USL chairman.
  • Christine Lagarde appointed for second term as IMF chief.
  • Vinod Rai appointed Chairman of Banks Board Bureau.
  • Atulesh Jindal to be New CBDT Chief.

Market

  • Indian markets fell by 7% in just one month.
  • All sectoral indices fell with the Bank Nifty falling over 10%.
  • US and UK markets neutral.
  • Japanese market fell by 8%.
  • Indian rupee cross Rs.68 vs US Dollar; Closed the month at Rs.68.19.
  • Gold prices surged by 5% and Silver was up by 3%.
  • Crude bounced back and settled around level.
  • FII’s sold Rs.15,000 crores during the month.
  • Mutual funds invested around Rs.30,000 crores out of which about Rs.25,000 crores on Debt.
WORLD INDICES
Indices 29-02-2016 29-01-2016 % 1M
BSE 23,002 24,871 -7.51%
NSE 6,987 7,564 -7.63%
DOW 16,488 16,466 0.13%
NASDAQ 4,600 4,614 -0.31%
FTSE 6,072 6,084 -0.20%
Nikkei 16,027 17,518 -8.51%
Hang Seng 19,112 19,683 -2.90%
Straits Times 2,667 2,629 1.43%
Shanghai 2,688 2,738 -1.83%
USD 68.19 67.89 0.44%
Euro 74.3 73.52 1.06%
GBP 94.78 97.11 -2.40%
Yen/100INR 0.61 0.56 8.93%
Gold 29,495 28,203 4.58%
Silver 36,062 35,045 2.90%
Crude Brent 1 35.78 34.74 2.99%
Crude Nymex 1 33.41 33.75 -1.01%
NIFTY SECTORAL INDICES
Sectors BANK NIFTY CNX IT CNX AUTO CNX FMCG CNX PHARMA
29-02-2016 13946 10278 7092 18332 11168
29-01-2016 15522 11236 7605 19133 11756
% 1M -10.15% -8.52% -6.74% -4.19% -5.00%

INDIAN TRADE( USD MILLION)
Exports 21080
Imports 28710
FDI 3743
Government Bond 10Y 7.63%
GDP YoY 7.30%
Inflation Rate 5.69%
Forex Reserves 1 M 350370
IIP % 10.35%
INSTITUTIONAL TRADING ACTIVITY
Particulars FII (Rs.crore) MF (Rs.crore)
Equity -6,281 4,384
Debt -8,554 25,696
Total 1 M -14,836 30,079
Total Since Jan 39,236 5,02,828
Equity -3,007 77,910
Debt 42,243 4,24,919

Crude Oil Brent, Economy / Market Snapshot - February 2016

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