July 5, 2016 by BizWhiz Admin in Economy Snapshot 0 comments 2469

Dear Colleagues,

I am pleased to attach the Economy / Market Snapshot covering all the major events in June, 2016.

June 2016 was an eventful month, with the Brexit referendum which shook the world. With the margin of about 3%, the referendum tilted towards “Leave”, it triggered the resignation of the British Prime Minister and opened up several doubts over the future of European economy. The aftermath of the referendum saw interesting twists with a campaign of another referendum, European Union seeking the immediate exit etc. The decision to leave is not easy to implement and may take years. Global markets recovered from this very soon except the Japan market which lost around 10%. UK markets closed the month with 4% gains. In India, IT sector lost about 2% while all the other sectors moved up. FII’s are net buyers in the equity market while they are net sellers in the debt market. Mutual Funds were neutral in the Equity segment but net buyers in the Debt market. RBI governor, Raghuram Rajan announced his intention to leave RBI and pursue academics. The Government has to now look for a credible name for this prestigious positon. Modi’s talk in the US Parliament evoked positive attention.

Considering the fall in the equity markets, Gold and Silver became favorites and moved up significantly during the month. Rupee inched towards Rs.68 and closed at Rs.67.52.

The loss of Argentina in the Copa America Final against Chile saw the retirement of Lionel Messi from the international football. The Euro cup fever is on and has currently reached the quarter final stage. Hope to see a good final match in July !
Happy reading!

Regards
V Murali

General News

  • Britain voted to leave the European Union after a bitterly divisive referendum campaign. Global
    markets lose $2.1 trillion in Brexit rout.
  • Prime Minister David Cameron, who had led the campaign to keep Britain in the EU, said he would
    resign by October and left it to his successor to decide when to invoke Article 50, which triggers a
    departure from European Union.
  • Monsoon session from July 18, Govt confident of GST passage.
  • The elections to 27 Rajya Sabha seats, spread across seven States, saw the BJP win 11 with four going
    to sitting central ministers and the Congress winning six. The Samajwadi Party secured seven seats and
    the Bahujan Samaj Party two, while a BJP-supported Independent won one.
  • Samajwadi Party wins 8 out of 13 seats in UP Legislative Council polls.
  • Cabinet approves 7th Pay Commission recommendation of 23% salary hike. Unhappy with 7th Pay
    Commission hike, govt employees to go on strike on July 11.
  • On 2 June 2016, 2 policemen and 22 squatters were killed in an armed conflict at Jawahar Bagh public
    park in Mathura city of Uttar Pradesh, India.
  • 360 people have been arrested in connection with the clashes that triggered after 3,000
    encroachments were evicted presently Supreme Court dismisses plea seeking CBI probe on Mathura
    violence.
  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress on 8th June.
  • This was Modi’s fourth visit to the U.S., during which he has met with President Barack Obama,
    business leaders and think-tank chiefs. Messrs. Obama and Modi announced that the U.S. and India
    would move ahead with the construction of six nuclear reactors in India by an American company.
  • India’s NSG bid blocked by China despite Modi’s diplomatic efforts. US talks tough on India’s failed
    NSG bid, says China must be held accountable.
  • World Bank chief Jim Yong Kim meets PM Narendra Modi in India; World Bank commits USD 1 billion
    for solar projects in India.
  • Modi government approves 100% FDI in aviation and food, easier norms for defence, pharma, singlebrand
    retail.
  • India to get access to almost 99% of U.S. defence technologies: White House official.
  • Modi launches Smart City projects in Jaipur, Udaipur via video-conference.
  • Cabinet clears model law that lets malls, cinemas stay open 24×7.
  • Istanbul’s Ataturk airport attacked by 3 suicide bombers, 36 dead and 147 injured.
  • 20 dead, 42 injured in Florida gay club attack, shooter dead, says police.
  • Narendra Modi, Ashraf Ghani inaugurate landmark Rs 1,700 crores Afghan-India Friendship Dam and
    Modi was conferred with Afghanistan’s top civilian award.
  • India, Qatar sign seven agreements to boost bilateral ties.
  • Pranab Mukherjee awarded highest honour by of Cote D’Ivoirie.
  • Anti-Corruption Branch books Sheila Dikshit, Arvind Kejriwal governments in Rs 400 crores tanker
    scam.
  • FIR registered against Sonia Gandhi, Oommen Chandy by a construction company in a case of nonpayment
    for building the Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Development Studies.
  • Vijay Mallya row: SBI, other banks deny Standard Chartered’s allegations of collusion. ED justifies
    seeking Interpol red corner notice against Vijay Mallya.
  • Anantnag By-Polls: Mehbooba Mufti wins by around 12000 Votes.
  • International Yoga Day 2016: PM Modi, ministers participate with thousands across India.
  • Arun Jaitley to meet industry chambers, CAs on black money window.
  • Cabinet clears mineral exploration policy.
  • US returns 200 artefacts worth $100 million to India.
  • Railway unions threaten indefinite strike from July 11.
  • US lawmakers introduce Bill for special global ties with India.
  • Ghulam Nabi Azad, Kamal Nath appointed Congress General Secretaries.
  • States likely to auction 20 iron ore blocks in Financial year 2017.
  • Bill seeking special status for India fails to pass US Senate.
  • UP CM Akhilesh Yadav carries out cabinet expansion before 2017 polls.
  • Assam Congress President Anjan Dutta dies due to cardiac failure at AIIMS in Delhi.
  • Senior Congress leader Kamal Nath quits Punjab Congress post.
  • PM Modi inaugurates Jaffna’s Duraiappah Stadium, says India wants to see a prosperous Sri Lanka.
  • South China floods kill 22, with more rain forecast.
  • Bill for indirect election of mayors passed by TN Assembly.
  • Chicago University welcomes Raghuram Rajan back to academics.
  • India takes giant leap in global space commerce after ISRO puts 20 satellites in orbit.
  • India to become full member of Missile Technology Control Regime.
  • India wins ODI and T20I series against Zimbabwe.
  • Chile stun Argentina in shootout to win Copa America with a margin of 4-2.
  • Lionel Messi announces retirement from international football.
  • Muhammad Ali, titan of boxing and the 20th century, dies at 74.
  • Saina Nehwal defeats Sun Yu to clinch second Australian Open title.
  • India bag silver in hockey Champions Trophy.
  • Rio Olympics: Vikas Krishan and Manoj Kumar settle for bronze in AIBA tournament.

Business News

  • RBI chief Raghuram Rajan shocked the markets by announcing that he would not seek reappointment
    in September.
  • Government shortlists 4 candidates to succeed Raghuram Rajan as RBI governor. Subir Gokarn,
    Rakesh Mohan frontrunners for Raghuram Rajan’s post.
  • No tax levy if cash payment for goods, services is less than Rs 2 lakhs, clarifies Central Board of Direct
    Taxes.
  • India ranks low at 105th on human capital index, Finland tops.
  • SBI to soon send detailed merger plan for government approval.
  • Startups get much-awaited tax exemptions.
  • Interest rate for PPF may not change next quarter.
  • RCom-AircelMerger on track, may conclude in July.
  • Microsoft to buy LinkedIn for $26.2 billion in all-cash deal.
  • Mutual Funds pump in Rs 7,200-crores in stock markets in April-June.
  • GDP growth accelerates to 7.9 %.
  • Core sector posts 8.5 per cent growth in April, highest since Nov 2014.
  • Manufacturing PMI rises marginally to 50.7 in May.
  • WPI inflation rises to 0.79% in May on higher food prices.
  • May CPI rises to 5.76% vs 5.39% in April; food inflation at 7.55% vs 6.32% (MoM).
  • Equity MFs’ asset base climbs 14% to Rs 3.7 lakh crores in May.
  • Private Equity investments fall 10.5% in May 2016.
  • Rs 10,000 crores ‘Fund of Funds for Startups’ approved by PM Narendra Modi-led Cabinet.
  • NSE to file for domestic IPO by Jan 2017
  • BRICS bank to issue first yuan denominated bonds.
  • Cabinet okays India Post’s payments bank proposal.
  • European Central Bank leaves interest rates at record lows.
  • Yes Bank plans to raise $1 billion in FY17.
  • Reliance Industries Ltd, has agreed to invest $16 million (Rs. 108 crore) in the U.S. tech start-up
    NetraDyne Inc.
  • Five land parcels of Sahara to be auctioned at Rs. 722 crores reserve price.
  • IMF approves $1.5 billion loan to Sri Lanka.
  • Micromax looks to enter China next year, may raise cash through public listing.
  • L&T wins orders worth Rs. 2,161 crores ; bags Rs. 903- crore contract to build World Cup stadium in
    Qatar.
  • Vodafone, Sky New Zealand announce merger deal worth $2.42 billion.
  • Vodafone tax case: HC allows penalty proceedings to go on.
  • Government raises financial powers of ministries.
  • Volkswagen’s U.S. settlement to cost $15 billion.
  • Morgan Stanley pays $1 million Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) fine over stolen customer
    data.
  • US government allocates $100 million for training workers.
  • Coal India arms to buyback shares worth Rs. 1,978 crores.
  • Indiabulls Housing Finance to raise ₹25,000 crores in FY17.
  • Twitter invests $70 million in online music platform SoundCloud.
  • Government IT spending in India to touch $7 billion this year: Report.
  • IRCTC, Just Dial, UTI MF in Fortune India Next 500 list.
  • Union Cabinet approves mega spectrum auction that could fetch Rs. 5.66 lakhs crores.
  • India owns $121.6 billion worth US government securities.
  • Rs 13,000 crores black money stashed in foreign bank accounts: report.
  • RBI chief Raghuram Rajan meets FM Arun Jaitley.
  • CBDT notifies foreign tax credit rules, corporates to gain.
  • Indian money in Swiss banks dips 33 per cent to record low of Rs 8,392 crores.

Market News

  • Indian markets were up by 1.50% despite the Brexit referendum result.
  • Post Brexit, London markets recovered significantly and up by 4% last week
  • Japan market was the worst affected with loss of 10%
  • Gold and Silver moved up by 9% and 12% respectively
  • IT sector down by 2.5% while FMCG went up by 5%
  • FII’s were net buyers in Equity market to the extent of Rs.3.700 crores while they were net sellers in
    the debt market to the extent of Rs.6,000 crores.
  • Mutual Funds were net buyers in the Debt market to the extent of Rs.50,000 crores.
  • INR moved to Rs.67.52 against US $
  • Crude prices hover around $ 50 mark.
WORLD INDICES
Indices 30- Jun 31- May % 1M 01- Jan % since
Jan
BSE 27,000 26,668 1.24% 26,161 3.21%
NSE 8,288 8,160 1.57% 7,963 4.08%
DOW 17,930 17,783 0.83% 17,425 2.90%
NASDAQ 4,843 4,948 -2.13% 5,007 -3.29%
FTSE 6,504 6,231 4.39% 6,242 4.20%
Nikkei 15,576 17,235 -9.63% 19,034 -18.17%
Hang Seng 20,794 20,815 -0.10% 21,914 -5.11%
Straits Times 2,841 2,791 1.79% 2,883 -1.45%
Shanghai 2,930 2,917 0.43% 3,539 -17.22%
USD 67.52 67.17 0.53% 66.23 1.95%
Euro 74.96 74.96 0.00% 71.92 4.23%
GBP 90.68 98.40 -7.85% 97.88 -7.36%
Yen/100INR 0.66 0.60 10.00% 0.55 20.00%
Gold 31,220 28,612 9.12% 26,320 18.62%
Silver 43,265 38,555 12.22% 33,080 30.79%
Crude Brent $ 50.03 49.41 1.25% 37.28 34.20%
Crude Nymex $ 48.61 48.68 -0.14% 37.09 31.06%
NIFTY SECTORAL INDICES
Sectors BANK NIFTY CNX IT CNX AUTO CNX FMCG CNX PHARMA
30 – Jun 17935 11120 8864 21608 11142
31- May 17621 11396 8720 20522 10995
% 1M 1.78% -2.42% 1.65% 5.29% 1.34%
01- Jan 17039 11175 8328 20185 11980
% since Jan 5.26% -0.49% 6.43% 7.05% -6.99%

INDIAN TRADE( USD MILLION)
Exports 22171
Imports 28444
FDI 2092
Government Bond 10Y 7.43%
GDP YoY 7.90%
Inflation Rate 5.76%
Forex Reserves $ M 363830
IIP % 7.37%
INSTITUTIONAL TRADING ACTIVITY
Particulars FII (Rs.crore) MF (Rs.crore)
Equity 3,693 265
Debt (5,969) 49,590
Total 1 M (2,276) 49,855
Total Since Jan 67,663 6,69,733
Equity 28,833 76,687
Debt 38,829 5,93,047

Crude Oil Brent, Economy / Market Snapshot -june 2016

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